ITK expects the NEM to move rapidly towards 50% renewable electricity driven by new entrant economics, high thermal fuel costs and Government policy. However this rapid transformation is expected to put strains on all stakeholders in the existing electricity industry from customers big and small through transmission and network providers to incumbent and new generators. Serious questions are already being raised about existing market structures and the ownership role of Federal and State Government in the industry. In the midst of all this buyers and seller face day to day questions about what price to contract for electricity and whether future returns will justify new investment.
In this presentation ITK very briefly looks into price drivers in the 2020 to 2025 frame work. We will glance at forecast of new supply by fuel, look at the minimum price thermal generators are likely to need and contemplate how an average day might look in various regions of the NEM in both 2022 and 2025.
We will also make some passing references to where we could be wrong, the obstacles in the face of a fast transition and the new questions that the industry will need to answer as renewable penetration increases. If time permits we’ll also look at how other jurisdictions, primarily California are dealing with similar issues in a similar time frame