The DNV GL Energy Transition Outlook is a series of studies considering what the global energy future looks like, and the potential impact on our customers. As a global quality assurance and risk management company, and driven by our purpose of safeguarding life, property and the environment, we enable our customers to advance the safety and sustainability of their businesses.
Our energy forecast has its foundations in the expertise of the thousands of DNV GL engineers working in both the oil and gas sector, and in power, renewables and energy use. Around 70% of our business is based in the energy sector, so for us, and for many of our customers, the energy transition itself is the greatest source of risk – and opportunity.
The Outlook describes the technology trends, issues and policy choices that will shape the future, and presents a global and regional forecast of changes that will occur between now and 2050.
The main conclusions are that we have a rapid energy transition ahead of us with electrification and decarbonization of an ever-more efficient energy system. We forecast a very strong growth of solar and wind, energy storage and grid investment, plus initial growth in gas, followed by a decline in coal, oil and, eventually, gas, in that order.
In spite of rapid electrification, and a large investment into grids, we expect the proportion of world GDP spent on energy to be lower in 2050 than today, making this energy transition affordable.