Huon and his team used AEMO data to determine that roughly 8% of generated energy is lost (dissipates in heat/frictional loss through energy transport). They then reviewed industry and other sources to determine that solar install has doubled in the last year suggesting a major uptick/change of trend. The team then downloaded and analysed millions of data points from 180 substations across Ausgrid representing a rich cross-section of the entire national energy grid. They used this data to model how the energy market would cope with the combination of storage and solar and what they found was very surprising and runs counter to what is being talked about in terms of the future of the NEM.
The ﬁrst stage will see an increase of increased solar install will lead to price volatility. But when storage enters the market seriously, and solar and batteries represent 32GW and 105GW hours of batteries this will make us 40% less reliant on coal (if managed correctly, demand management, distributed energy). Much of the loss outlined earlier would be regained through local generation. Then the next stage would see us really challenging the existing business model of the current energy structure.
Bottom line, we are a lot closer than anyone is currently predicting to turning off coal-ﬁred power plants (a tripling of the solar install will occur in the next 3-4 years)
3 key takeaways from this presentation:
1. Will outline current state of commercial solar industry and business viability of solar without storage
2. Will then use a first-of-its-kind NEM analysis and projections to show imminent disruption of coal plant business model as a result of solar and increased storage uptake.
3. Will present an alternative model for the future of energy use that shows that abundance and lower-cost energy is well within Australia’s reach within a decade if the right steps are taken now.