The LCOE of rooftop solar has fallen below 7c/kWh. There are 9.9 million dwellings in Australia, with 1.7 million already having solar and a further 5.5 million that would benefit significantly from installing solar today. With Choice showing that 81% of Australian’s rate energy costs as their #1 cost of living concern, energy costs rising and solar costs falling, the 175,000 annual solar installations is set to continue growing.
With the average user on the Solar Analytics fleet of 17,000 customers reducing their electricity consumption by 45%, that represents a loss of revenue to the incumbent energy retailers and generators of $120m pa and growing. And the only thing standing between this deluge of ready to go solar customers is knowledge and certainty. Both of which are provided through the new range of solar home energy management tools like Solar Analytics.
Then add kerosene to the fire in the form of energy storage which is declining at 25% cost pa and will be economic for 50% of customers by end 2018, and the revenue loss doubles and growth rate could treble (all estimates are wild guesses at this stage).
Finally, we get to the rocket fuel. Once EVs are better value than the old petrol aspirated ICE in around 2021, they will rapidly capture a large proportion of our 1 million new car sales each year. With an average battery pack of 70 kWh, in as little as two years these EVs can completely arbitrage and support the grid. Then it doesn’t matter when you generate your electricity, simply how cheaply you can do it. And rooftop solar beats everything else by a factor of 2.
And all of this excludes the commercial solar space which is contributing a further 30%+ of this distributed energy transformation. Buckle up, we are in for a wild ride!
3 key takeaways from this presentation:
1. Consumers, not retailers, government or regulators will drive our transition to Energy 2.0
2. Rooftop solar is the catalyst, with storage kerosene on the fire and EVs the rocket fuel
3. Buckle – its going to be a wild ride with consumers the ultimate beneficiaries